ATLPIT
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Falcons -2.0.
- Simulation: Steelers win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 1.4 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 13 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Steelers 13th (3.7).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -3.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.8 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · PIT n/a | ATL 39% · PIT 61% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +156 · PIT -156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 24, ATL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 13 and PIT by 20.
Side by side
| ATL | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | ATL 13 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -6.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | PIT 18 @ ATL 10 | PIT | ATL -4 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | PIT 19 @ ATL 16 | PIT | PIT -1 |
| 2018-10-07 | 2018 Wk 5 | ATL 17 @ PIT 41 | PIT | PIT -3.5 |
| 2014-12-14 | 2014 Wk 15 | PIT 27 @ ATL 20 | PIT | PIT -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away