PITATL
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Falcons -2.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 1.5 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Falcons win 4,720 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 16 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Steelers 13th (3.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.8 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · ATL n/a | PIT 53% · ATL 47% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -112 · ATL +112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 21, PIT 23.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 17 and ATL by 16.
Side by side
| PIT | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | ATL 13 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -6.5 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | PIT 18 @ ATL 10 | PIT | ATL -4 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | PIT 19 @ ATL 16 | PIT | PIT -1 |
| 2018-10-07 | 2018 Wk 5 | ATL 17 @ PIT 41 | PIT | PIT -3.5 |
| 2014-12-14 | 2014 Wk 15 | PIT 27 @ ATL 20 | PIT | PIT -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away