ATLSEA
Atlanta Falcons @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Travel: Falcons cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Falcons win 2,520 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Falcons rank 6th (3.9), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 8 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | ATL n/a · SEA n/a | ATL 25% · SEA 75% |
| Fair moneyline | ATL +297 · SEA -297 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, ATL 17.
- 80% of simulations land between ATL by 8 and SEA by 25.
Side by side
| ATL | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 24.4 10 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 24.7 20 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.04 23 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.00 15 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 5.6% 22 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | SEA 37 @ ATL 9 | SEA | SEA -7 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | SEA 34 @ ATL 14 | SEA | ATL -3 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | ATL 27 @ SEA 23 | ATL | SEA -1 |
| 2020-09-13 | 2020 Wk 1 | SEA 38 @ ATL 25 | SEA | ATL -1 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | SEA 27 @ ATL 20 | SEA | SEA -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away