SEAATL
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 4.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Falcons 19th (-0.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Falcons 22nd (5.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Falcons win 3,340 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.5 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · ATL n/a | SEA 67% · ATL 33% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -200 · ATL +200 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 20, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 21 and ATL by 11.
Side by side
| SEA | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | SEA 37 @ ATL 9 | SEA | SEA -7 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | SEA 34 @ ATL 14 | SEA | ATL -3 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | ATL 27 @ SEA 23 | ATL | SEA -1 |
| 2020-09-13 | 2020 Wk 1 | SEA 38 @ ATL 25 | SEA | ATL -1 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | SEA 27 @ ATL 20 | SEA | SEA -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away