BALDEN
Baltimore Ravens @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Ravens -6.0.
- Simulation: Broncos win 5,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Ravens cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,050 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Ravens rank 13th (3.7), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 14 or more.
- History: Ravens won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · DEN n/a | BAL 40% · DEN 60% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +147 · DEN -147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, BAL 20.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 14 and DEN by 20.
Side by side
| BAL | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | DEN 10 @ BAL 41 | BAL | BAL -9 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | DEN 9 @ BAL 10 | BAL | BAL -9.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | BAL 23 @ DEN 7 | BAL | DEN -1 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | DEN 14 @ BAL 27 | BAL | BAL -5.5 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | BAL 13 @ DEN 19 | DEN | DEN -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away