DENBAL
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
50% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 50% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Broncos cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Ravens rank 13th (3.7), Broncos 29th (2.3).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Ravens -6.0.
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,990 of 10,000 simulations (50%). A 50% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Ravens 14th (+0.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Broncos in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · BAL n/a | DEN 50% · BAL 50% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +100 · BAL -100 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 23, DEN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 16 and BAL by 17.
Side by side
| DEN | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | DEN 10 @ BAL 41 | BAL | BAL -9 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | DEN 9 @ BAL 10 | BAL | BAL -9.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | BAL 23 @ DEN 7 | BAL | DEN -1 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | DEN 14 @ BAL 27 | BAL | BAL -5.5 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | BAL 13 @ DEN 19 | DEN | DEN -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away