BALGB
Baltimore Ravens @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: Packers win 5,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Packers rank 7th (4.3%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,320 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 0.7 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · GB n/a | BAL 43% · GB 57% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +131 · GB -131 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, BAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 14 and GB by 19.
Side by side
| BAL | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-3 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | 2025 Wk 17 | BAL 41 @ GB 24 | BAL | GB -2.5 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | GB 31 @ BAL 30 | GB | GB -9.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | BAL 23 @ GB 0 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | GB 19 @ BAL 17 | GB | GB -1 |
| 2009-12-07 | 2009 Wk 13 | BAL 14 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away