GBBAL
Green Bay Packers @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 0.6 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Packers +5.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Packers rank 7th (4.3%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Packers in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · BAL n/a | GB 48% · BAL 52% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +109 · BAL -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 24, GB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 16 and BAL by 17.
Side by side
| GB | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | 2025 Wk 17 | BAL 41 @ GB 24 | BAL | GB -2.5 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | GB 31 @ BAL 30 | GB | GB -9.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | BAL 23 @ GB 0 | BAL | BAL -2.5 |
| 2013-10-13 | 2013 Wk 6 | GB 19 @ BAL 17 | GB | GB -1 |
| 2009-12-07 | 2009 Wk 13 | BAL 14 @ GB 27 | GB | GB -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away