BALHOU
Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Ravens -6.0.
- Simulation: Texans win 5,650 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Ravens 16th (6.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,350 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · HOU n/a | BAL 44% · HOU 56% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +130 · HOU -130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 24, BAL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 14 and HOU by 19.
Side by side
| BAL | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | HOU 44 @ BAL 10 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2024-12-25 | 2024 Wk 17 | BAL 31 @ HOU 2 | BAL | BAL -5.5 |
| 2024-01-20 | 2023 Divisional | HOU 10 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -10 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | HOU 9 @ BAL 25 | BAL | BAL -9.5 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | BAL 33 @ HOU 16 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away