HOUBAL
Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Ravens -6.0.
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,860 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 16 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Ravens 16th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · BAL n/a | HOU 49% · BAL 51% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +106 · BAL -106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 23, HOU 23.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 16 and BAL by 17.
Side by side
| HOU | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-05 | 2025 Wk 5 | HOU 44 @ BAL 10 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2024-12-25 | 2024 Wk 17 | BAL 31 @ HOU 2 | BAL | BAL -5.5 |
| 2024-01-20 | 2023 Divisional | HOU 10 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -10 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | HOU 9 @ BAL 25 | BAL | BAL -9.5 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | BAL 33 @ HOU 16 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away