BALLA
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Simulation: Rams win 6,530 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.6 points stronger.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Travel: Ravens cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 3,470 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 11 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Ravens rank 16th (6.6%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · LA n/a | BAL 35% · LA 65% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +188 · LA -188 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 27, BAL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 11 and LA by 21.
Side by side
| BAL | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | LA 17 @ BAL 3 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | LA 31 @ BAL 37 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | LA 20 @ BAL 19 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2019-11-25 | 2019 Wk 12 | BAL 45 @ LA 6 | BAL | BAL -3.5 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | LA 13 @ BAL 16 | BAL | BAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away