LABAL
Los Angeles Rams @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Ravens -6.0.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 1.7 points stronger.
- Rams passing game (12th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: Rams win 5,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,300 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Travel: Rams cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · BAL n/a | LA 57% · BAL 43% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -133 · BAL +133 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 23, LA 24.5.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 18 and BAL by 15.
Side by side
| LA | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | LA 17 @ BAL 3 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | LA 31 @ BAL 37 | BAL | BAL -7.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | LA 20 @ BAL 19 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2019-11-25 | 2019 Wk 12 | BAL 45 @ LA 6 | BAL | BAL -3.5 |
| 2015-11-22 | 2015 Wk 11 | LA 13 @ BAL 16 | BAL | BAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away