BALLV
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 3.5 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Ravens -6.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Ravens in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,940 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Ravens cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · LV n/a | BAL 61% · LV 39% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -154 · LV +154 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 23, BAL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 20 and LV by 14.
Side by side
| BAL | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | LV 26 @ BAL 23 | LV | BAL -9 |
| 2021-09-13 | 2021 Wk 1 | BAL 27 @ LV 33 | LV | BAL -3 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | LV 17 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -13 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | BAL 30 @ LV 17 | BAL | LV -3 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | LV 28 @ BAL 27 | LV | BAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away