LVBAL
Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 3.5 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Ravens -6.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,040 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Ravens 14th (+0.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · BAL n/a | LV 30% · BAL 70% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +229 · BAL -229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 27, LV 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 10 and BAL by 23.
Side by side
| LV | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | LV 26 @ BAL 23 | LV | BAL -9 |
| 2021-09-13 | 2021 Wk 1 | BAL 27 @ LV 33 | LV | BAL -3 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | LV 17 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -13 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | BAL 30 @ LV 17 | BAL | LV -3 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | LV 28 @ BAL 27 | LV | BAL -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away