BALNO
Baltimore Ravens @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 3.0 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Ravens rank 14th (+0.1), Saints 28th (-0.6).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,100 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 14 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Ravens 21st (65.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.6 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · NO n/a | BAL 59% · NO 41% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -144 · NO +144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 23, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 20 and NO by 14.
Side by side
| BAL | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | NO 24 @ BAL 17 | NO | BAL -8.5 |
| 2022-11-07 | 2022 Wk 9 | BAL 27 @ NO 13 | BAL | BAL -1 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | NO 24 @ BAL 23 | NO | BAL -2.5 |
| 2014-11-24 | 2014 Wk 12 | BAL 34 @ NO 27 | BAL | NO -2.5 |
| 2010-12-19 | 2010 Wk 15 | NO 24 @ BAL 30 | BAL | BAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away