NOBAL
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 2.9 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 30th against it.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 3,260 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 11 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Ravens 21st (65.0).
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.6 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · BAL n/a | NO 33% · BAL 67% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +207 · BAL -207 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 27, NO 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 11 and BAL by 23.
Side by side
| NO | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | NO 24 @ BAL 17 | NO | BAL -8.5 |
| 2022-11-07 | 2022 Wk 9 | BAL 27 @ NO 13 | BAL | BAL -1 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | NO 24 @ BAL 23 | NO | BAL -2.5 |
| 2014-11-24 | 2014 Wk 12 | BAL 34 @ NO 27 | BAL | NO -2.5 |
| 2010-12-19 | 2010 Wk 15 | NO 24 @ BAL 30 | BAL | BAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away