BALNYG
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 4.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,960 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 14 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Ravens 13th (3.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · NYG n/a | BAL 60% · NYG 40% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -152 · NYG +152 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 21, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 20 and NYG by 14.
Side by side
| BAL | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | BAL 35 @ NYG 14 | BAL | BAL -16.5 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | BAL 20 @ NYG 24 | NYG | BAL -5.5 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | NYG 13 @ BAL 27 | BAL | BAL -10 |
| 2016-10-16 | 2016 Wk 6 | BAL 23 @ NYG 27 | NYG | NYG -3.5 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | NYG 14 @ BAL 33 | BAL | NYG -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away