NYGBAL
New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 4.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,100 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 10 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Ravens 13th (3.7).
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.4 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · BAL n/a | NYG 31% · BAL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +223 · BAL -223 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 26, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 10 and BAL by 23.
Side by side
| NYG | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | BAL 35 @ NYG 14 | BAL | BAL -16.5 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | BAL 20 @ NYG 24 | NYG | BAL -5.5 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | NYG 13 @ BAL 27 | BAL | BAL -10 |
| 2016-10-16 | 2016 Wk 6 | BAL 23 @ NYG 27 | NYG | NYG -3.5 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | NYG 14 @ BAL 33 | BAL | NYG -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away