BALNYJ
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 3.7 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Ravens in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Ravens rank 13th (3.7), Jets 23rd (3.0).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,860 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Ravens 16th (6.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · NYJ n/a | BAL 61% · NYJ 39% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -159 · NYJ +159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 20, BAL 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 20 and NYJ by 14.
Side by side
| BAL | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | NYJ 10 @ BAL 23 | BAL | BAL -14 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | BAL 24 @ NYJ 9 | BAL | BAL -6.5 |
| 2019-12-12 | 2019 Wk 15 | NYJ 21 @ BAL 42 | BAL | BAL -17 |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Wk 7 | BAL 16 @ NYJ 24 | NYJ | NYJ -2 |
| 2013-11-24 | 2013 Wk 12 | NYJ 3 @ BAL 19 | BAL | BAL -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away