NYJBAL
New York Jets @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Ravens in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Jets win 3,000 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Ravens 16th (6.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -6.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · BAL n/a | NYJ 30% · BAL 70% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +233 · BAL -233 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 26, NYJ 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 10 and BAL by 23.
Side by side
| NYJ | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | NYJ 10 @ BAL 23 | BAL | BAL -14 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | BAL 24 @ NYJ 9 | BAL | BAL -6.5 |
| 2019-12-12 | 2019 Wk 15 | NYJ 21 @ BAL 42 | BAL | BAL -17 |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Wk 7 | BAL 16 @ NYJ 24 | NYJ | NYJ -2 |
| 2013-11-24 | 2013 Wk 12 | NYJ 3 @ BAL 19 | BAL | BAL -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away