BALPHI
Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 1.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Ravens in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Ravens rank 17th (+0.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,080 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 14 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Ravens 20th (80.0%).
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.2 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · PHI n/a | BAL 59% · PHI 41% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -145 · PHI +145 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, BAL 23.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 19 and PHI by 14.
Side by side
| BAL | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | PHI 24 @ BAL 19 | PHI | BAL -3 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | BAL 30 @ PHI 28 | BAL | BAL -10.5 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | PHI 26 @ BAL 27 | BAL | BAL -5 |
| 2012-09-16 | 2012 Wk 2 | BAL 23 @ PHI 24 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2008-11-23 | 2008 Wk 12 | PHI 7 @ BAL 36 | BAL | BAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away