PHIBAL
Philadelphia Eagles @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 1.6 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Ravens in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Ravens rank 17th (+0.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,280 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 10 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Ravens 20th (80.0%).
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Ravens 21st (65.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -5.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.2 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · BAL n/a | PHI 33% · BAL 67% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +205 · BAL -205 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 24, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 10 and BAL by 22.
Side by side
| PHI | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | PHI 24 @ BAL 19 | PHI | BAL -3 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | BAL 30 @ PHI 28 | BAL | BAL -10.5 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | PHI 26 @ BAL 27 | BAL | BAL -5 |
| 2012-09-16 | 2012 Wk 2 | BAL 23 @ PHI 24 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2008-11-23 | 2008 Wk 12 | PHI 7 @ BAL 36 | BAL | BAL -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away