BALPIT
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Ravens -6.0.
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Ravens 14th (+0.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Steelers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Ravens win 4,620 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 1.1 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 26th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · PIT n/a | BAL 46% · PIT 54% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL +116 · PIT -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 23, BAL 21.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 15 and PIT by 18.
Side by side
| BAL | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 5-2 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | BAL 24 @ PIT 26 | PIT | BAL -4.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | PIT 27 @ BAL 22 | PIT | BAL -5.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024 Wild Card | PIT 14 @ BAL 28 | BAL | BAL -9.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024 Wk 16 | PIT 17 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -7 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | BAL 16 @ PIT 18 | PIT | BAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away