PITBAL
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Simulation: Ravens win 5,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Ravens play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 1.0 points stronger.
- Strength: Ravens rank 6th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (+0.22).
- Strength: Ravens rank 8th in offense, EPA per play (+0.09).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Ravens -6.0.
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,410 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.8 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Ravens 14th (+0.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · BAL n/a | PIT 44% · BAL 56% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +127 · BAL -127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 23, PIT 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 14 and BAL by 19.
Side by side
| PIT | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | 2025 Wk 18 | BAL 24 @ PIT 26 | PIT | BAL -4.5 |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | PIT 27 @ BAL 22 | PIT | BAL -5.5 |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024 Wild Card | PIT 14 @ BAL 28 | BAL | BAL -9.5 |
| 2024-12-21 | 2024 Wk 16 | PIT 17 @ BAL 34 | BAL | BAL -7 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | BAL 16 @ PIT 18 | PIT | BAL -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away