BALWAS
Baltimore Ravens @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 3.6 points stronger.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Simulation: Ravens win 6,320 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Ravens in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,680 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Ravens 14th (+0.1).
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | BAL n/a · WAS n/a | BAL 63% · WAS 37% |
| Fair moneyline | BAL -172 · WAS +172 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 22, BAL 26.
- 80% of simulations land between BAL by 21 and WAS by 13.
Side by side
| BAL | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 24.1 12 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 23.9 18 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| +0.09 8 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.04 21 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 6.6% 16 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | WAS 23 @ BAL 30 | BAL | BAL -6.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | BAL 31 @ WAS 17 | BAL | BAL -14.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | WAS 16 @ BAL 10 | WAS | BAL -4 |
| 2012-12-09 | 2012 Wk 14 | BAL 28 @ WAS 31 | WAS | WAS -1 |
| 2008-12-07 | 2008 Wk 14 | WAS 10 @ BAL 24 | BAL | BAL -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away