WASBAL
Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
72% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 72% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 7,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Ravens running game (14th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: Ravens rank 17th (+0.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,770 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Ravens 14th (+0.1).
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Ravens defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 8 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -6.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.1 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · BAL n/a | WAS 28% · BAL 72% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +261 · BAL -261 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 27, WAS 20.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 8 and BAL by 24.
Side by side
| WAS | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | WAS 23 @ BAL 30 | BAL | BAL -6.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | BAL 31 @ WAS 17 | BAL | BAL -14.5 |
| 2016-10-09 | 2016 Wk 5 | WAS 16 @ BAL 10 | WAS | BAL -4 |
| 2012-12-09 | 2012 Wk 14 | BAL 28 @ WAS 31 | WAS | WAS -1 |
| 2008-12-07 | 2008 Wk 14 | WAS 10 @ BAL 24 | BAL | BAL -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away