BUFCAR
Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.3 points stronger.
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Panthers -9.0.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Panthers win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Panthers rank 16th (+0.0), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.3 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · CAR n/a | BUF 64% · CAR 36% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -176 · CAR +176 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 24, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 21 and CAR by 13.
Side by side
| BUF | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | BUF 40 @ CAR 9 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | CAR 14 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -14 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | BUF 3 @ CAR 9 | CAR | CAR -6.5 |
| 2013-09-15 | 2013 Wk 2 | CAR 23 @ BUF 24 | BUF | CAR -3.5 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | BUF 20 @ CAR 9 | BUF | CAR -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away