CARBUF
Carolina Panthers @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.2 points stronger.
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Panthers 24th (-2.1).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Panthers win 2,860 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Panthers rank 16th (+0.0), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 9 or more.
- Panthers running game (18th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.3 |
| Win chance | CAR n/a · BUF n/a | CAR 29% · BUF 71% |
| Fair moneyline | CAR +249 · BUF -249 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, CAR 23.
- 80% of simulations land between CAR by 9 and BUF by 24.
Side by side
| CAR | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 25.4 9 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 27.6 27 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.02 13 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.05 23 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 4.0% 28 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | BUF 40 @ CAR 9 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2021-12-19 | 2021 Wk 15 | CAR 14 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -14 |
| 2017-09-17 | 2017 Wk 2 | BUF 3 @ CAR 9 | CAR | CAR -6.5 |
| 2013-09-15 | 2013 Wk 2 | CAR 23 @ BUF 24 | BUF | CAR -3.5 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | BUF 20 @ CAR 9 | BUF | CAR -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away