BUFCIN
Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Bills +1.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bengals rank 2nd (9.4%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Simulation: Bengals win 5,380 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Bills win 4,620 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.2 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.5 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · CIN n/a | BUF 46% · CIN 54% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF +116 · CIN -116 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, BUF 26.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 15 and CIN by 18.
Side by side
| BUF | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | CIN 34 @ BUF 39 | BUF | BUF -6 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | BUF 18 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -1.5 |
| 2023-01-22 | 2022 Divisional | CIN 27 @ BUF 10 | CIN | BUF -6 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | CIN 17 @ BUF 21 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | BUF 16 @ CIN 20 | CIN | CIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away