CINBUF
Cincinnati Bengals @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Simulation: Bills win 5,560 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.1 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Bengals win 4,440 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Bengals rank 8th (+0.5), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Bills +1.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bengals rank 2nd (9.4%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 53.5 |
| Win chance | CIN n/a · BUF n/a | CIN 44% · BUF 56% |
| Fair moneyline | CIN +125 · BUF -125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, CIN 26.
- 80% of simulations land between CIN by 14 and BUF by 19.
Side by side
| CIN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 27.2 4 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 20.3 8 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.11 6 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.04 9 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 9.4% 2 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | CIN 34 @ BUF 39 | BUF | BUF -6 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | BUF 18 @ CIN 24 | CIN | CIN -1.5 |
| 2023-01-22 | 2022 Divisional | CIN 27 @ BUF 10 | CIN | BUF -6 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | CIN 17 @ BUF 21 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | BUF 16 @ CIN 20 | CIN | CIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away