BUFCLE
Buffalo Bills @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.5 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Browns defense that ranks 14th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,920 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Bills 26th (-0.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · CLE n/a | BUF 71% · CLE 29% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -243 · CLE +243 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 20, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 23 and CLE by 10.
Side by side
| BUF | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | BUF 23 @ CLE 20 | BUF | BUF -10.5 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | CLE 23 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | BUF 16 @ CLE 19 | CLE | CLE -3 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | CLE 13 @ BUF 33 | BUF | BUF -10.5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | CLE 10 @ BUF 26 | BUF | BUF -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away