CLEBUF
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Browns passing game (21st in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,270 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Browns rank 16th (+0.0), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -9 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.9 |
| Win chance | CLE n/a · BUF n/a | CLE 23% · BUF 77% |
| Fair moneyline | CLE +341 · BUF -341 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, CLE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between CLE by 7 and BUF by 27.
Side by side
| CLE | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 19.0 28 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 20.9 12 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.03 20 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.03 13 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.0 16 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.8% 6 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | BUF 23 @ CLE 20 | BUF | BUF -10.5 |
| 2022-11-20 | 2022 Wk 11 | CLE 23 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2019-11-10 | 2019 Wk 10 | BUF 16 @ CLE 19 | CLE | CLE -3 |
| 2016-12-18 | 2016 Wk 15 | CLE 13 @ BUF 33 | BUF | BUF -10.5 |
| 2014-11-30 | 2014 Wk 13 | CLE 10 @ BUF 26 | BUF | BUF -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away