BUFDEN
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.4 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Bills +1.0.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Bills cross 2 time zones for this one.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · DEN n/a | BUF 52% · DEN 48% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -110 · DEN +110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, BUF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 17 and DEN by 16.
Side by side
| BUF | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025 Divisional | BUF 30 @ DEN 33 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024 Wild Card | DEN 7 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2023-11-13 | 2023 Wk 10 | DEN 24 @ BUF 22 | DEN | BUF -7.5 |
| 2020-12-19 | 2020 Wk 15 | BUF 48 @ DEN 19 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | DEN 3 @ BUF 20 | BUF | BUF -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away