DENBUF
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Simulation: Bills win 5,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.3 points stronger.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,010 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Bills +1.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Broncos rank 9th (7.4%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Broncos running game (15th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -3.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.7 |
| Win chance | DEN n/a · BUF n/a | DEN 40% · BUF 60% |
| Fair moneyline | DEN +149 · BUF -149 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, DEN 23.
- 80% of simulations land between DEN by 13 and BUF by 20.
Side by side
| DEN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 20.6 25 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 20.1 7 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.05 25 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.04 8 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.4% 9 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025 Divisional | BUF 30 @ DEN 33 | DEN | DEN -1.5 |
| 2025-01-12 | 2024 Wild Card | DEN 7 @ BUF 31 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2023-11-13 | 2023 Wk 10 | DEN 24 @ BUF 22 | DEN | BUF -7.5 |
| 2020-12-19 | 2020 Wk 15 | BUF 48 @ DEN 19 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2019-11-24 | 2019 Wk 12 | DEN 3 @ BUF 20 | BUF | BUF -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away