BUFDET
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.0 points stronger.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Lions 10th (3.8).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Bills +1.0.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -0.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 56.8 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · DET n/a | BUF 51% · DET 49% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -102 · DET +102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 28, BUF 28.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 17 and DET by 17.
Side by side
| BUF | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 2026 Wk 2 | DET 31 @ BUF 41 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | BUF 48 @ DET 42 | BUF | DET -2.5 |
| 2022-11-24 | 2022 Wk 12 | BUF 28 @ DET 25 | BUF | BUF -10 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | DET 13 @ BUF 14 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | BUF 17 @ DET 14 | BUF | DET -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away