DETBUF
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 0.9 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Lions win 4,030 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Lions rank 8th (+0.5), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Lions +7.0, Bills +1.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Lions rank 7th (7.5%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 56.8 |
| Win chance | DET n/a · BUF n/a | DET 40% · BUF 60% |
| Fair moneyline | DET +148 · BUF -148 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, DET 27.
- 80% of simulations land between DET by 13 and BUF by 20.
Side by side
| DET | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 30.7 2 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 27.5 26 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.14 4 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.12 29 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.5% 7 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | 2026 Wk 2 | DET 31 @ BUF 41 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | BUF 48 @ DET 42 | BUF | DET -2.5 |
| 2022-11-24 | 2022 Wk 12 | BUF 28 @ DET 25 | BUF | BUF -10 |
| 2018-12-16 | 2018 Wk 15 | DET 13 @ BUF 14 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | BUF 17 @ DET 14 | BUF | DET -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away