BUFGB
Buffalo Bills @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,310 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Packers defense that ranks 10th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Packers win 4,690 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.2 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · GB n/a | BUF 53% · GB 47% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -113 · GB +113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, BUF 26.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 17 and GB by 15.
Side by side
| BUF | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-3 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | GB 17 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BUF -10.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | BUF 0 @ GB 22 | GB | GB -8.5 |
| 2014-12-14 | 2014 Wk 15 | GB 13 @ BUF 21 | BUF | GB -3.5 |
| 2010-09-19 | 2010 Wk 2 | BUF 7 @ GB 34 | GB | GB -12.5 |
| 2006-11-05 | 2006 Wk 9 | GB 10 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away