GBBUF
Green Bay Packers @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Packers 15th (+0.9).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Packers passing game (11th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Packers rank 8th (+0.5), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Packers win 3,720 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Packers rank 11th (7.2%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.2 |
| Win chance | GB n/a · BUF n/a | GB 37% · BUF 63% |
| Fair moneyline | GB +169 · BUF -169 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, GB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between GB by 12 and BUF by 21.
Side by side
| GB | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-3 | Record | 5-1 |
| 21.4 23 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 20.5 11 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.01 14 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.06 4 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.5 8 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.2% 11 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | GB 17 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BUF -10.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | BUF 0 @ GB 22 | GB | GB -8.5 |
| 2014-12-14 | 2014 Wk 15 | GB 13 @ BUF 21 | BUF | GB -3.5 |
| 2010-09-19 | 2010 Wk 2 | BUF 7 @ GB 34 | GB | GB -12.5 |
| 2006-11-05 | 2006 Wk 9 | GB 10 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away