BUFHOU
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.3 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Upset odds: Texans win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.9 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · HOU n/a | BUF 52% · HOU 48% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -109 · HOU +109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 24, BUF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 17 and HOU by 17.
Side by side
| BUF | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | BUF 36 @ HOU 31 | BUF | BUF -1.5 |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025 Wk 12 | BUF 19 @ HOU 23 | HOU | BUF -5.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | BUF 20 @ HOU 23 | HOU | HOU -1 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | HOU 0 @ BUF 40 | BUF | BUF -19 |
| 2020-01-04 | 2019 Wild Card | BUF 19 @ HOU 22 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away