HOUBUF
Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Texans 20th (-0.7).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Texans passing game (15th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Texans win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Texans rank 11th (+0.4), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.9 |
| Win chance | HOU n/a · BUF n/a | HOU 39% · BUF 61% |
| Fair moneyline | HOU +156 · BUF -156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, HOU 23.
- 80% of simulations land between HOU by 13 and BUF by 20.
Side by side
| HOU | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 23.6 15 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 24.3 19 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.02 12 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.03 18 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.9% 5 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2026 Wk 1 | BUF 36 @ HOU 31 | BUF | BUF -1.5 |
| 2025-11-20 | 2025 Wk 12 | BUF 19 @ HOU 23 | HOU | BUF -5.5 |
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | BUF 20 @ HOU 23 | HOU | HOU -1 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | HOU 0 @ BUF 40 | BUF | BUF -19 |
| 2020-01-04 | 2019 Wild Card | BUF 19 @ HOU 22 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away