BUFIND
Buffalo Bills @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.7 points stronger.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Simulation: Bills win 6,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Bills in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 3,490 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Bills 29th (73.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.1 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · IND n/a | BUF 65% · IND 35% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -187 · IND +187 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 24, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 21 and IND by 12.
Side by side
| BUF | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 2-5 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | BUF 30 @ IND 20 | BUF | BUF -4.5 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | IND 41 @ BUF 15 | IND | BUF -7.5 |
| 2021-01-09 | 2020 Wild Card | IND 24 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | BUF 5 @ IND 37 | IND | IND -7 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | IND 7 @ BUF 13 | BUF | BUF -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away