INDBUF
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
73% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 73% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Colts defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Colts 25th (-3.7).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Colts -8.0.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Colts win 2,670 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Penalty yards per game: Colts rank 1st (38.7), Bills 29th (73.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 8 or more.
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.1 |
| Win chance | IND n/a · BUF n/a | IND 27% · BUF 73% |
| Fair moneyline | IND +274 · BUF -274 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, IND 22.
- 80% of simulations land between IND by 8 and BUF by 25.
Side by side
| IND | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 25.7 23 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.06 26 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.03 19 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -1.3 32 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 5.8% 20 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | BUF 30 @ IND 20 | BUF | BUF -4.5 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | IND 41 @ BUF 15 | IND | BUF -7.5 |
| 2021-01-09 | 2020 Wild Card | IND 24 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | BUF 5 @ IND 37 | IND | IND -7 |
| 2017-12-10 | 2017 Wk 14 | IND 7 @ BUF 13 | BUF | BUF -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away