BUFJAX
Buffalo Bills @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Any-day matchup, Jaguars at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jaguars can win
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Simulation: Jaguars win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Jaguars play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Jaguars may not
- Upset odds: Bills win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 1.0 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jaguars lose by 15 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Jaguars 10th (3.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | JAX -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.8 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · JAX n/a | BUF 44% · JAX 56% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF +125 · JAX -125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: JAX 27, BUF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 15 and JAX by 18.
Side by side
| BUF | JAX | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 4-2 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 25.7 8 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 17.3 3 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.15 3 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 11 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 4.5% 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | 2025 Wild Card | BUF 27 @ JAX 24 | BUF | JAX -1.5 |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024 Wk 3 | JAX 10 @ BUF 47 | BUF | BUF -4 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | JAX 25 @ BUF 20 | JAX | BUF -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | BUF 6 @ JAX 9 | JAX | BUF -14.5 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | JAX 21 @ BUF 24 | BUF | JAX -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away