JAXBUF
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Jaguars defense that ranks 13th against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 5,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 0.9 points stronger.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Jaguars 10th (3.8).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Jaguars passing game (4th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Jaguars rank 3rd (+0.8), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Jaguars win 4,600 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Jaguars running game (9th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Jaguars in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.8 |
| Win chance | JAX n/a · BUF n/a | JAX 46% · BUF 54% |
| Fair moneyline | JAX +117 · BUF -117 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 27, JAX 24.
- 80% of simulations land between JAX by 15 and BUF by 18.
Side by side
| JAX | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 25.7 8 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 17.3 3 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.15 3 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.03 11 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 4.5% 24 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | 2025 Wild Card | BUF 27 @ JAX 24 | BUF | JAX -1.5 |
| 2024-09-23 | 2024 Wk 3 | JAX 10 @ BUF 47 | BUF | BUF -4 |
| 2023-10-08 | 2023 Wk 5 | JAX 25 @ BUF 20 | JAX | BUF -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | BUF 6 @ JAX 9 | JAX | BUF -14.5 |
| 2018-11-25 | 2018 Wk 12 | JAX 21 @ BUF 24 | BUF | JAX -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away