BUFKC
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: Bills win 4,700 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 11th against it.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 8th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 16 or more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 0.6 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.7 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · KC n/a | BUF 47% · KC 53% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF +113 · KC -113 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 26, BUF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 16 and KC by 18.
Side by side
| BUF | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | KC 21 @ BUF 28 | BUF | KC -2.5 |
| 2025-01-26 | 2024 Conf. title | BUF 29 @ KC 32 | KC | KC -1.5 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | KC 21 @ BUF 30 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
| 2024-01-21 | 2023 Divisional | KC 27 @ BUF 24 | KC | BUF -2.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | BUF 20 @ KC 17 | BUF | KC -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away