KCBUF
Kansas City Chiefs @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Simulation: Bills win 5,590 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bills play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 11th against it.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 8th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bills rank 1st (5.3), Chiefs 10th (3.8).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Chiefs passing game (14th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Chiefs win 4,410 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Bills 17th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.7 |
| Win chance | KC n/a · BUF n/a | KC 44% · BUF 56% |
| Fair moneyline | KC +127 · BUF -127 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 26, KC 24.
- 80% of simulations land between KC by 14 and BUF by 18.
Side by side
| KC | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 23.8 14 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 17.2 2 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| +0.10 7 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.05 6 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.8 3 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 3.2% 31 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | KC 21 @ BUF 28 | BUF | KC -2.5 |
| 2025-01-26 | 2024 Conf. title | BUF 29 @ KC 32 | KC | KC -1.5 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | KC 21 @ BUF 30 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
| 2024-01-21 | 2023 Divisional | KC 27 @ BUF 24 | KC | BUF -2.5 |
| 2023-12-10 | 2023 Wk 14 | BUF 20 @ KC 17 | BUF | KC -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away