BUFLAC
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,740 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,260 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Travel: Bills cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · LAC n/a | BUF 67% · LAC 33% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -206 · LAC +206 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 23, BUF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 22 and LAC by 11.
Side by side
| BUF | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 0-6 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | LAC 16 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2023-12-23 | 2023 Wk 16 | BUF 24 @ LAC 22 | BUF | BUF -13 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | LAC 17 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BUF -4.5 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | LAC 31 @ BUF 20 | LAC | LAC -7.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | BUF 24 @ LAC 54 | LAC | LAC -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away