LACBUF
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
76% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 76% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 3.4 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Chargers -9.7.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,450 of 10,000 simulations (24%). A 76% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
- Weak spot: Bills rank 30th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.5).
- Weak spot: Bills rank 30th in points allowed per game (28.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -8.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · BUF n/a | LAC 24% · BUF 76% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +309 · BUF -309 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 29, LAC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 7 and BUF by 25.
Side by side
| LAC | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 5-1 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | LAC 16 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -7 |
| 2023-12-23 | 2023 Wk 16 | BUF 24 @ LAC 22 | BUF | BUF -13 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | LAC 17 @ BUF 27 | BUF | BUF -4.5 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | LAC 31 @ BUF 20 | LAC | LAC -7.5 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | BUF 24 @ LAC 54 | LAC | LAC -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away