BUFLV
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.2 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Bills win 6,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Travel: Bills cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,030 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.9 |
| Win chance | BUF n/a · LV n/a | BUF 70% · LV 30% |
| Fair moneyline | BUF -229 · LV +229 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 23, BUF 29.
- 80% of simulations land between BUF by 23 and LV by 11.
Side by side
| BUF | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 32.8 1 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 28.5 30 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.20 1 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.13 31 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 4.3% 26 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | BUF 33 @ LV 30 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | LV 10 @ BUF 38 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | BUF 30 @ LV 23 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | LV 14 @ BUF 34 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | BUF 24 @ LV 38 | LV | LV -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away