LVBUF
Las Vegas Raiders @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.1 points stronger.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bills +1.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,290 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 7 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Raiders rank 6th (49.6), Bills 29th (73.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.9 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · BUF n/a | LV 23% · BUF 77% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +336 · BUF -336 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, LV 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 7 and BUF by 27.
Side by side
| LV | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 5-1 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | BUF 33 @ LV 30 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | LV 10 @ BUF 38 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | BUF 30 @ LV 23 | BUF | BUF -3 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | LV 14 @ BUF 34 | BUF | BUF -2.5 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | BUF 24 @ LV 38 | LV | LV -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away